Water conflicts

• 3 Muslim states 
• Regional rainfall variations 643mm per year - only 16% available for use 
• Cash crops

South-eastern Anatolia Project (GAP)

• $32 billion 
• South East economy growth of 400% 
• Agro-industril urbanisation - 1.7 million hectares of land supports 7% of population 
• 22 dams & 19 HEP plants - damming Tigris & Euphrates- 22% energy by 2010
• Socio-economic development: bread basket of Middle East, Integrated water & energy supply, provide jobs to stop out migration, better education & healthcare provisions
• Syria & Iraq unhappy about damming - they receive restricted flow & Turkey may not allow flow once dam is full due to political conflicts

Is conflict inevitable? YES

• Conflict only averted through international intervention
• Water released from Ilisu dam only to Syria NOT Iraq
• Plans to build Cizre Dam for irrigation in Turkey - Syria & Iraq left to fight over the remaining water

• Damming Tigris river 

Potential negative impacts

• Ancient town of Hasakeyf flooded displacing 34,000 Kurds
• Increased malaria & waterborne disease risk 
• WB, UK government & Skansa Swedish TNC pulled out 

2004

• Amended plans 
• Kurds relocated 

2007

• Austrian, German & Swiss Consortium built Ilisu Dam 
• Released water to Syria NOT Iraq

Israel

• Consumes 500 billion litres more than receives naturally - unsustainable consumption 
• Population increase of 1.5% annually
• Internal competition for water resources
• Israel has control over 80% of aquifers 
• Palestine has control over 8% of aquifers 

Geopolitical tensions

• 1953 US Special Envoy dictated water shares - Israel largest shares & Lebanon Syria smallest shares depite providing the most water
• Shifting territorial borders - hard to supply whole population 
• 2050 11 million Israelis will be living in desert conditions - daily water needs need to be met 
• Israel & Palestine blame each other for water mismanagement

Is conflict inevitable? YES

• Israel, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon & Jordan suffered conflict since 1948 - some received greater shares in 1953
• Diplomacy & hydropolitics unlikely to work as Syria & Israel already do not get on

Syria Al-Thawra Dam 1974 

• Iran-Iraq war disputes over territorial Shatt Al Arab waterway 
• Reduced flow of Euphrates to Iraq by 25% 

Manavgat Project 2004-5

• 50 million m3 shipped from Turkey each year 
• Turkey & Israel - in return for high tech military support
• Syria forced to cut off water from Jordan in order to secure own supplies

Desalinsation Master Plan 

• Red Sea & Mediterranean 
• Sea water will provide Israel with 25% water by 2020
• Import water-rich foods

Colorado Compact 1922 - Law of the river 

• 7 states between USA & Mexico 
• 11 major dams supply 4,000mW HEP to 30 million people 
• Calfornia largest proportion because large population & political power

Stakeholders

• Farmers - 80% allocation for 810,000 hectares of agricultural land irrigation 
• Mexicans - delta reduced water & sediment 90% extracted before reaching Mexico
• US Federal government - line Imperial Valley with concrete (water conservation project) but any change will affect supplies in Mexico 
• Indigenous groups - Native Americans disputes with federal government since 1880
• Environmentalists & recreationalists - development of lakes heavy use of Lake Powell threatening lakeshore areas
• City dwellers - SW states urbanisation - California forcing Imperial Valley farmers to supply Los Angeles & San Diego 

Benefits

• Flood & sediment control
• Domestic water supply

Costs 

• Water loss from evaporation & seepage 
• Groundwater overdraft 
• Salinisation as a result of irrigation 

Big Thompson Project 1959

• Farmers VS developers 
• Farmers argue water rights but water wasted from irrigation 
• Cucupa fishermen in Mexico forced to leave 90% extracted before reaching Mexico 

Conflict Inevitable? NO

• Dams created issues
• No real underlying tension
• Drug smuggling more of an issue

Issues 

• Former Soviet Union diverted Amu & Syr Darya rivers 
• Chemical fertilisers & pesticides DDT
• Fields used to grow water-intensive crops - main source of income for Kazakhstan 
• 4.5 million hectares 1960 to 7 million hectares 1980 due to rapid irrigation development
• High temperatures = high evporation rates
• Covers 10% of former surface area
• Receives 10 times less water 

Impacts 

• Economic - 60,000 fishermen lost livelihoods (live below poverty line, salinisation, migrate to seek employment elsewhere)
• Social - cancers, TB & malnutrition - drink salty water kidney failure - dust from exposed ground respiratory disorders.
• Environmental - destruction of ecosystems & salt water insursion farming increases pollution 

Kok-Aral Dam 2005 

• World Bank & Kazakhstan government
• Syrn Darya prevetned from reaching futher south 
• Sea level rose from 30-38m by 2006
• Fish stocks recovered 
• Uzbekistan had no say but unlikely to reduce use of Amu Darya as most income from cotton exports 

Afforestation 

• International Fund for saving the Aral Sea 
• 14-20% forest cover
• Influence hydrological cycle - more channel flow as well as more infilitration, trnaspiration & precipitation.
• Imporve both North AND South 

World's longest river 

• 10 countries providing 360 million people with water 
• Covers 10% Africa's land mass
• Relatively low flow (compared to Amazon & Congo)
• Lower course (Egypt) soil degradation & Aswan Dam mega project 
• 94% used by Egypt & Sudan BUT 85% originates in Eritrea & Ethiopia 

Issues& Hydropolitics 

• Rising population in Eypt & Ethiopia 
• Climate change Sahel & general patterns of rainfall & less evapotranspiration 
• Source - immediate flooding - White Nile Storage 
• No government in East DRC, South Sudan & CAR civil war - no management 
• Nile Basin Initiative - water war averted 
• UN Helsinki rules 1996 regulated how transboundary rivers & groundwater should be managed
• Negotiated with World Bank & bi-lateral aid donors 10/11 countries equal use - large community involvement 

Conflict Inevitable? 

• Tensions present due to Egypt's dominance & treaties in 1929 & 1959 Nile Water Agreements 
• Ethiopia dam building for HEP & industrial dev 1990s - Blue Nile - Eqgypt threatened war 1999

Bolivia, Cochabamba

• 36% GDP spent servicing debt
• 1990s Bolivia required new development lonas from the World Bank 
• Needed to comply with the World Bank's requirements - privatisatio of services including water
• 50% increases in protests between 1999-2000
• SEMAPA sold to French & US Aguas del Tunari - invested in buildingd dams Misicuni Project - Law 2029 gave Aguas del Tunari control over all water in Cochabamba

La Paz - privately run water supply 

• Corporate efficiency 
• 100& coverage - water pipes installed only in city but could not afford - 200,000 excluded since 2005 due to cost 
• $450/ person for connection but average wages $17/ month 
• Less than 20% population connected 

Cochabamba - nationalised water supply 

• Government inefficiency 
• 45% coverage & available 2 hours a day 3 days a week - walk for safe water - dig own wells & collect from trucks
• Low rates therefore able to afford BUT government lack funding & infrastructure

Water is a human right 

• World Bank 
• UN Human rights council 
• 60% Bolivians live below the poverty line 
• Average earnings $100/ year
• Water rates rose in Cochabamba from $10 to $20 per month

Water is a commodity

• Limited areas have access 
• Aguas del Tunari took on $30 million in debt 
• Sanitation to residents 
• Generate electricity

Issues

• Majority landlocked therefore lack precipitation - extreme poverty 
• Population growth
• Global warming & climate change 
• High pressure dominates - short rainy season - below average since 1970 
• Poor agricultural management - overgrazing 
• Lack of surface avilability
• Poor geology - no aquifers & lack money/ technology 

Economic impacts 

• Dehydrated & malnourished workforce - limited productivity - little economic growth 
• Government investing in securing water supplies rather than education & healthcare 
• Debt - moast of region reliant on aid 

Social Impacts 

• Drought & famine dominate - Niger famine 2004 
• Locals forced to leave & become refugees elsewhere 
• Sahel is always food insecure - constant threat 
• Girls collect water - no education 

Environmental Impacts

• Past 50 years Sahara moved 2-5km / year into Sahel - desertification & soil erosion  - can't maintain vegetation 
• Flash floods 
• Drought - lower river levels - reduced availability 

South-North Water Diversion Project 

• Chinese government $62 billion 
• 330,000 people displaced - relocated for expansion of Danjiangkou reservoir 
• East & Central route completed 
• West route complete 2050 
• East - factories - pollution - water not fit to drink 
• 2011 Han River & Danjiangkou so low - not sufficient water for drinking & crops 
• Diversion of water from the Yangtze River Basin causing problems to worsen since 3 Gorges

3 Gorges Dam 

Advantages 

• Ships able to navigate the rivers & reach the Chungong 
• Job creation - increasing tourism along river
• Development of new towns & farms - protect farmland from flooding 
• 10% electricity through HEP 

Disadvantages

• 150 towns & 4500 villages flooded - displacement of 1.3 million people 
• Lake pollution - industrial waste